Especially in an election year, it is common to look to the future and wonder what one’s community, town, county or state will look like years from now. This forward thinking is a staple of planning for municipalities and counties who regularly look to identify trends in population growth, homeownership, income, road usage, and many, many other factors in order to better serve their populations in the years to come.
To this end, the Dakota County Office of Performance and Analysis presented before the General Government and Policy Committee of the Whole on Tuesday, Oct. 8 about demographic and economic trends within the county. The presentation looked forward to population trends as Dakota County grows, as well as the economic trends that affect who moves into the county, where they move, and why. The presentation was an update from figures presented in February of this year after Minnesota State Demographers updated their projections in May.
To date, Dakota County has gained 4,168 residents since 2022 due to births outpacing deaths, and positive migration into the county. According to the county website, Dakota County has an estimated population of 447,440 residents in 2023, meaning the increase of 4,168 residents represents an increase of less than 1% of the total population. Based on these updated projections, Dakota County is expected to overtake Ramsey County as the second largest county in Minnesota by the year 2036, due in no small part to Ramsey County’s falling population.
That increased population is expected to continue the trend of increased diversity in the county, with current projections estimated that by 2055, more than 40% of the county’s population will identify as a race or ethnicity other than white, non-Hispanic, up from less than 25% of residents identifying that way this year. Hastings is the fifth-fastest growing municipality in the county behind Lakeville, Burnsville, Rosemount, and Inver Grove Heights.
The cost of living in Dakota County for a typical family is $71,735 in 2023, up 4.6% from 2022. That translates to an hourly rate of $22.99, a figure 6.6% higher in Dakota County than in the State of Minnesota.
Dakota County median home sale prices have more than doubled since 2009 from $174,250 to $380,000 in 2023. At the same time while real median household income has risen by more than $20,000, adjusted for inflation, median household income has actually fallen 3.8% from 2008. Separating out median household income by race paints a stark picture of economic inequality across the county. Asian households top the chart with a median household income of $131,397, while White households sit roughly in the middle of the pack at $100,880. At the bottom of the chart are households identifying as a race other than Asian, White, two or more races, Hispanic or Latino, or Black or African American, with a median household income of $62,318, less than half of the median for Asian households.
Renters, a significant share of Dakota County’s population, have seen a 52% increase in median rent prices from 2015, up from a median Dakota County rent of $1,042 in 2015 to $1,585 in 2023.
“Renters are bearing the greatest burden of the high cost of living,” said Management Analyst at the Office of Performance and Analysis Penny Anderson.
Home ownership in Dakota County largely reflects the economic inequality shown in median household income. According to the presentation’s figures for 2023, at the top of scale is 86% of Asian residents owning a home. White residents, the majority of the population of Dakota County, have a homeownership rate of 78%. At the bottom of the chart at 30% and 29% respectively are Black or African American households and households not identifying as Asian, White, two or more races, Hispanic or Latino, or Black or African American.
Commissioners discussed the volatility of the rates of homeownership across the county at the meeting, with numbers spiking in 2019 and falling in 2023, especially for the groups with the lowest rates of homeownership. Commissioner Mike Slavik spoke to the lower rates for Black or African American households and households not identifying as Asian, White, two or more races, Hispanic or Latino, or Black or African American as potentially being reflective of immigrants into the county who often aren’t able to buy homes.
“With a $380,000 median home price, you have to save a lot,” said Slavik.
Another metric tracked alongside rent and homeownership is households cost-burdened by housing expenses. Households that are cost-burdened are households that pay 30% or more of income before taxes to housing expenses. While this figure has fallen in Dakota County since 2010, it has risen since the pandemic, sitting at 26.7% of households in Dakota County. Of that, more than a quarter of Dakota County households that are cost burdened are much more likely to be renters. Rates of cost-burdened households across race and ethnicity are much higher for renters except for Asian households which did not report any households renting.
“Renters, it appears, are cost-burdened, regardless of race,” said Anderson.
Finally, commissioners discussed K-12 education achievement in the county. While all the metrics in Dakota County outrank both the seven-county metro area and the state of Minnesota as a whole, they showcase the impact the COVID-19 Pandemic had and continues to have on student outcomes.
The percentage of students meeting or exceeding third grade reading standards in Dakota County has dropped from over 60% in 2013 to 49.5% in 2023, with the largest drop seen in 2020. Similarly, the percentage of students meeting or exceeding eighth grade math standards has dropped from around 60% in 2013 to 48% in 2023, again showing a precipitous drop during the pandemic. While both these metrics have leveled off since the pandemic, they have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
For more information about Dakota County Statistics, visit the Dakota County website at https://www.co.dakota.mn.us/Government/Analysis/Demographics/Pages/default.aspx